It is too late for me get the AmEx Hilton Ascend Bonus offers coming out in two days (18 January 2017). When I log into the Hilton Website they already have my current Surpass earnings coded as Ascend.
AmEx has given me the bad news that my current Surpass card will be counted as an existing Ascend in the future, meaning I will never ever get the bonus (“lifetime” product year limit). No one really knows what the Bonus Ascend will be, but there was mention that it would be one free weekend night which kind of sucks since you have to pay for one night to get another free (possibly). I think the better bet is to get the 85k points now and hope for an upgrade to Aspire bonus in the future. If you look at the Value Penguin site, there is a nice chart of what 85k can get you. More datapoints of not being able to double dip surpass and ascend are here.
So go ahead and use my links if you want to capture the 85k points today instead of waiting for what is to come with a direct Ascend application.