When I told www.trainwrecktrader.com I was paying $16.95 a month for a TSP Pilot newsletter he scoffed and declared he could easily beat both my portfolio as well as the TSP Life Cycle Fund. Thus this bet and his website were born. The rules of the bet are as follows:
Whereas, the Derp and I share half-birthdays. The bet shall fore to beginth no later than the first day of the first month from whence I turn 32 (which is next week so bet starts June 1st 2016) and performance bets shall be analyzed the first day of the month after our birthdays (June 1st and December 1st of each year)
The method of determining value of each TSP portfolio allocation will be based upon a $1,000 starting value, no additional contributions, and based off the official TSP share/price performance and conversion charts .
TSP allocation rules shall be followed including a maximum of 2 allocation changes per calendar month and allocation change will be calculated the following day, whenever the daily changeover occurs
Well I am sworn by penalty of
death loosing my subscription without refund in the user agreement to not disclose the allocations stated by the TSP Pilot newsletter. I will however calculate my earnings based on these said allocations and post that. You just got to trust I haven’t cooked the books, hell you can subscribe to TSP Pilot and follow along as well. I wish I would get some sort of bonus for referrals.
On the flip side Davey is giving his allocations away for free because thats the guy he is, also it seems to be what the fed trader and tsp allocations.com are doing. Ultimately there is the third option of 60:20:20 C:S:I from Dave Ramsey ensuring dollar cost averaging as well as time in the market trumping timing of the market. So maybe were both idiots compared to what dumb money says we should blindly do.
Since the reallocations are free on TSP and you get two a month, why not take a bet like Warren Buffet did with the hedge funds. Although the stakes are a little less than his, Let the best TSP allocation win!